Jake Cielys 2023 fantasy football breakouts: Jahan Dotson, Treylon Burks and more wide receivers

Continuing the series of 2023 breakout fantasy football players (running backs, quarterbacks), we now toss it up to wide receivers. You might have heard “wide receiver is deeper than ever” … each of the past 4-5 years. While that statement is overplayed, finding options during the mid-to-late rounds is doable yearly.

For 2023’s breakout fantasy football wide receivers, we have several second-year options and some true late-round fliers who can bring terrific rewards.

ROOKIES AND NON-QUALIFIERS (aka — Guys Who Don’t Count)

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET — Some have called for the Sun God to reach the upper tier of receivers this year. With Jameson Williams starting the season suspended and St. Brown’s ability plus career development, it wouldn’t be a surprise, but he was already Top 10 and WR11 in FPPG last year.
DeVonta Smith, PHI — There were some concerns over Smith not improving due to A.J. Brown in town, but Smith had his breakout with a WR9 finish and WR17 in FPPG even while Brown was WR5/7. The Jalen Hurts breakout helps.
Christian Kirk, JAX — Kirk now has Calvin Ridley competing for the top spot, and while I believe both can have Top 20 finishes, Kirk was WR12/19, having his breakout coincide with Trevor Lawrence’s.
Jordan Addison, MIN; Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA; et al rookies — Rinse and repeat. We can love rookies for value — I wrote an article pointing out we might be undervaluing them — but they don’t qualify as breakouts. At least not for me (if you think rookies deserve a “breakout” tag, I won’t argue much).

Obvious names and/or popular picks.

Chris Olave, NO — For receivers with at least 50 routes, Olave was eighth in AirYD/TGT at 14.17 with Gabe Davis, George Pickens and Christian Watson as the only others with at least 140 fantasy points and 13.5 AirYD/TGT or more. Too many assumed Derek Carr would be bad news for Davante Adams and the downfield opportunity in Vegas, but Carr was eighth in AirYD/ATT at 9.13, sandwiched between Josh Allen and Justin Fields. Meanwhile, Andy Dalton was 27th (7.86), and Olave still managed to be WR25 as a rookie and WR12 from Weeks 2-11. Olave will push the WR1 tier, but it’s 1) a popular pick and 2) not a massive jump.
Garrett Wilson, NYJ — Similar to Olave, Wilson had a nice rookie season (WR19), gets a quarterback upgrade and will push the WR1 tier. However, his growth margin is even slimmer with the 19th finish, and I have some concerns about Wilson’s touchdown total (only this), as Allen Lazard has been a favorite of Aaron Rodgers in the end zone (the most EZ targets last year and even two years ago with Adams still around).
Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, GB — With Rodgers gone, Jordan Love steps in and can help Watson and Doubs break out. Yes, Watson is tough to expect more from after being the WR2 — only behind Adams — from Weeks 10-13. Doubs is the one with the bigger jump potential, but Watson can become a consistent Top 15 option for his “breakout,” while Doubs being the reliable, reception-based option can push him into fantasy startability, which is a breakout for him.

TOP 5 BREAKOUT WIDE RECEIVERS

Jahan Dotson, WSH — Similar to Burks, you may have concerns with Dotson’s quarterback situation, but I believe in Sam Howell more than Levis and that he has a higher ceiling than Tannehill. Howell has similarities to Ben Roethlisberger and can lead a successful offense, which the Commanders were already not the worst with — they had the 20th most yards, though just 18.9 PPG (24th). Even that 2022 offense saw Dotson score double-digits in six of his games. Yes, there is also the argument that Dotson was touchdown-reliant, but I’d argue that is part of his game. No, Dotson won’t score 15 touchdowns, but we’re talking about one of the best 2022 rookie receivers regarding speed, route manipulation and YAC. Finding space and the end zone is part of Dotson’s game, and he is a great complement to Terry McLaurin as the top two weapons for Howell. Dotson can take a Brandon Aiyuk-type step forward, pushing into the Top 20 receivers. In fact, if Dotson equals or comes close to McLaurin’s target share, Dotson finishing higher is a real possibility.

Drake London, ATL — London’s appeal actually starts in Cincinnati during the 2021 season. Confused? Stick with me. Part of Alec Pierce’s appeal was the numbers he put up in the Bearcats’ offense with Desmond Ridder at the helm. Pierce is a possession-type receiver, who can beat slower defenders underneath and deep, but is more reliable and skills-based than athletic. London is the better version of Pierce, winning even more contested catches than Pierce can with good (not great) speed and a physical frame to be a top target. Ridder needs a London (Pierce) type with his style of play, and we got a brief glimpse at the potential connection. Over the final four weeks, only D.J. Moore had a higher TmTGT% (32.9) than London’s 32.7%, and Ridder targeted London on 33.0% of his routes with 11.03 AirYD/TGT. Yes, the Falcons offense will be run-heavy, might be near the bottom in total offensive plays and Kyle Pitts will be healthy. Nevertheless, London can and will be Ridder’s favorite weapon, even with a healthy Pitts — and London pushing for 120 targets would result in 70+ receptions, 1000+ yards and 5+ touchdowns, which would be a Top 25 finish.

Skyy Moore, KC — Kadarius Toney gets all the attention given his ability and flashes we’ve seen… when healthy. If healthy, Toney is an obvious pick for many, but don’t overlook Moore, who received a ton of post-draft hype last year but is now forgotten after a quiet rookie year. With JuJu Smith-Schuster gone, Moore feels like the better fit to replace his role, in what was a Top 3 of Travis Kelce, JJSS and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Moore was out wide 50% of the time and in the slot 48%, which is quite similar to Smith-Schuster, and unless MVS losing his top-two role (or even if he does to Rashee Rice or Justyn Ross), Moore is a dynamic weapon with a perfect fit. Much like Doubs instead of Watson, Moore is the deep discount pick for a massive increase in value (weekly starter value).

Treylon Burks, TEN — Whether or not you agree with my skepticism of Will Levis, Burks can break out in his Year 2. Yes, we’d prefer Ryan Tannehill under center all year, but that’s no guarantee, and it appears the Titans have already moved on from Malik Willis as his successor. I bring that up to say a Kenny Pickett rookie-like performance is what I would pencil in for Levis, so let’s play it as if Tannehill and Levis split the season nine games to eight (reminder: you can divvy up the attempts, targets, etc. for anyone on any team here in our cheat sheet tool). My initial projections have Tannehill for 70% of the work and Levis at 28% (Willis getting a minute two percent). With 21.2% of the target share, 62.0% reception rate, 13.8 YPC and 7.5% TD/REC, we get 114.8-71.2-982.4-5.3 for Burks, which equals 173.1 Half-PPR points and a WR26 ranking (just 0.1 behind 25th). Those points would have put Burks at WR20 in 2022. If I push Tannehill and Levis to 50% and 48%, Burks’ numbers drop (adjusting down REC% as well) to 114.8-70.0-966.6-5.0, which is still 169.2 and WR28. Now, Levis could be even worse for Burks and the offense, but whether Burks is WR20 or WR35, it would be a major breakout for someone who was WR80 as a rookie. I mentioned last year that Burks needed a bit more time to develop in the NFL than others, but he already has great hands, the ability to win at all levels — especially in contested situations — and an enviable frame (Mike Williams-esque in some ways). Burks’ ability will offset even some of my Levis concerns, and the lack of serious threats to his 20%+ target share means Burks is a Top 5 breakout. (Took a slight hit with the injury)

John Metchie, HOU — Much of the, “Who will catch passes in Houston?” talk centers around Nico Collins and Robert Woods. Raise your hand if it already feels as if we’ve been hoping for the Collins breakout for five years. In truth, he’s entering just his third season, and injuries have derailed some of his development and ascension. However, while C.J. Stroud is a great pocket passer and has nice deep ball ability, Collins profiles more as just that — the deep threat with more of a Gabe Davis appeal. If you’re looking for the receiver who has the highest ceiling as the Texans No. 1 option, it’s Metchie. Let’s not forget how reliable of a receiver Metchie was/can be. I stopped short of the Stefon Diggs mention since I brought up Davis, but Metchie regularly breaks coverage and has burst off the line and in routes with added downfield upside. The ACL injury in college and health issues warrant our concern, but again, this is about the highest ceiling. Woods is a No. 3 option at this point of his career, and Metchie can be Stroud’s best friend, as Diggs is to Josh Allen. No, I’m not saying Metchie will near Diggs or even that tier of receiver, but Metchie being the most-valuable Texans receiver is more than plausible, as the main concern isn’t ability or fit, it’s just health.

(Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images)

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